Raid Changes

[SupaflyIRL]

Originally Posted by Frieza_Prexus [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Not exactly. The mob would have an equal chance at spawning at ANY point during each independent window extension. IE: during window one it could spawn at 1 second in or at the last second.

Yes, there are "blocks" where a staggered sock is, in theory, possible. However, the idea is that the % chance at an extension is conducted at some point when the timer is between 75% and 85% completion, AND the first timer extension has a 50% chance of occurring (or tweaked to some reasonable % so as to make socking unprofitable). These combined raised the level of uncertainty to a point so that socking becomes immensely unprofitable.

Also:

You're not understanding what I'm saying, every single extension's endpoint would be a known time which makes your solution "more of the same".

Originally Posted by Ele [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

No boss here has a 10 hour variance, they range from 18, 24, and 48 hour variances.

The chances that a mob goes to the last 10% of its window is already low, on top of that it would be highly discouraging to those wanting to sock something out that last 2-5 hours to have a coin flip that it could be another 24 hours, and yet another coin flip to extend again.

The reason socking is prevalent at this point (keeping in mind the variance as implemented is not classic) is because you know that the boss will spawn for sure within that rapidly closing window. The addition of FTE rules also further encourages sitting on spawn points for the FTE lottery win.

Made up numbers for simplicity. Also, the odds that a mob will spawn in the last 10% of its variance are the same as the first 10% or at any other time, so a late window spawn is just as statistically probable as any other spawn time.

[Frieza_Prexus]

Originally Posted by Handull [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

doesn't take any calculation to see that any chance to make the mob spawn later, with no chance to spawn sooner, will cause less spawns per unit time.

Obviously, this decreases the number of spawns in any given time period. My point is that the impact is negligible. Even if the impact were noteworthy, I submit that it would be worth it to lessen the amount of socking.

Originally Posted by SupaflyIRL

You're not understanding what I'm saying, every single extension's endpoint would be a known time which makes your solution "more of the same".

I understand you. My counter point is that each instance of socking becomes a gamble. Yes, it is true that strategic or staggered socking can and will occur. The point I am making is that this system lessens such occurrences. It is not "more of the same" it actually leads to "less of the same." The probability increasingly diminishes the efficacy of late window socks.

[Sizzle]

Looking for Skope's input on this situation. >.>

[Ele]

Originally Posted by SupaflyIRL [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

You're not understanding what I'm saying, every single extension's endpoint would be a known time which makes your solution "more of the same".



Made up numbers for simplicity. Also, the odds that a mob will spawn in the last 10% of its variance are the same as the first 10% or at any other time, so a late window spawn is just as statistically probable as any other spawn time.

I don't disagree with any of those points. I do disagree with you that people would keep coming back at each new close of window. In my opinion, the prospect of keeping people and bringing them back for sock after sock on the same single mob would be highly discouraging.

[Splorf22]

Xasten's scheme according to my back of the envelope calculation would be about a 3% reduction in spawns.

Why not do something simpler: 5 days after it is killed, every raid boss has a ~1%/hour chance to spawn. I'd have to do the math on what percentage would give us the same number of mobs, but it would totally eliminate poopsocking (there would be no rise in probability towards the end of the window) while being mathematically more elegant.

Of course none of this changes the problem that VARIANCE SUCKS DONKEY BALLS. I kind of agree with Alarti that Velious will help a lot, but it won't be the The Solution. Again, I think my solution of spawning all raid mobs every day at fixed times would a) be way more fun b) get way more people involved in the raid scene. But we've had this discussion, Rogean was going to implement some changes, and evidentially he lost interest. So the whole point is moot.

[Wiwi]

How long has variance been instituted?

Let's say Rogean became a vegan one day and suddenly decided to remove the variance for just one month. How bad would things be in comparison to how things run now?

If this is answered by another thread, please link for me.

[SupaflyIRL]

Originally Posted by Frieza_Prexus [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I understand you. My counter point is that each instance of socking becomes a gamble. Yes, it is true that strategic or staggered socking can and will occur. The point I am making is that this system lessens such occurrences. It is not "more of the same" it actually leads to "less of the same." The probability increasingly diminishes the efficacy of late window socks.

day 0: mob dies

day 8: 10% left in window start socking

day 8: new window expires

day 9: 10% left in new window start socking

day 9: new window expires

Repeat until infinity or mob dies in same exact manner as they do now. This will only increase the importance of zerg recruiting to meet the new socking requirements as opposed to causing any kind of significant blow to the practice. Explain to me how multiple potential socking points is less of the same and not more of the same, since you yourself said this can continue indefinitely.

I understand you've invested yourself in this idea, but you're wrong and your numbers and theory are garbage.

[Hugmukk]

Sounds like your just delaying the spawn in which case more poop socking will entail, spawn variance was a good idea but has caused other issues. It should be elliminated. Create a "simulated crash" I think that's the best option.

[SupaflyIRL]

Originally Posted by Ele [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I don't disagree with any of those points. I do disagree with you that people would keep coming back at each new close of window. In my opinion, the prospect of keeping people and bringing them back for sock after sock on the same single mob would be highly discouraging.

If you could honestly tell me you're certain guilds wouldn't stoop even lower to the challenge (as in you'd wager something important on it), I'll concede this point.

[Alarti0001]

Originally Posted by SupaflyIRL [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If you could honestly tell me you're certain guilds wouldn't stoop even lower to the challenge (as in you'd wager something important on it), I'll concede this point.

Thats the issue people are already socking 3-4 days straight.