FBSS rarity?

[Droodler]

One more thing you might find useful

Here I plotted the chance of getting at least 1 FBSS vs number of hours spent camping, using all the above data/assumptions

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[BobSmith]

Droodler, can you put that in layman's terms?

That last chart was clear, but I did not understand the rest.

[Droodler]

Originally Posted by BobSmith [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Droodler, can you put that in layman's terms?

That last chart was clear, but I did not understand the rest.

Bayesian statistics involve three things: a prior distribution, a likelihood, and posterior (the result)

The prior distribution is what we expect the outcome to be before we apply the data. It is an assumption made from existing data or assumptions you make. Here, I made the assumption that 1 FBSS every 10 hours was reasonable. I made a prior based on this, that in 61 attempts you would get 1 FBSS.

Then what you do is take into account the actual data. Here, the OP said he had 109 spawns with 0 FBSS. I used that to create a likelihood (the red curve).

Then you combine them to get the posterior. That is the gold curve.

To interpret this graph

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Think of the x axis as the probability of a single spawn dropping an FBSS. The Y axis is a density, so you can interpret the height of each curve at a point as the probability of that being the ACTUAL FBSS drop rate.

You can see that in the prior (blue curve), the expected FBSS drop rate is around 0.018. In the post, it is 0.012.

The cumulative function I think you understand.

[fischsemmel]

Originally Posted by guineapig [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

In that case you will need a ton of people responding to this thread.

My guess is that there are somewhere between 600-700 sashes in the game right now.

I'm basing this guess on the number of days the server has been live, rounding down to 400 due to server down time and the first month when the population was low and leveling up. Then I'm guessing that about 1-2 sashes drop on average per day.

No, I won't need a ton of people responding. I only need a significant amount of data like what I provided to get a ballpark figure for how rare FBSS drops are. The number of them on the server, the time the server has been, how often they are farmed, all that can contribute to the answer I want... but I hardly need 100+ people to tell me how long it took each of them to get their FBSS in order to have a ballpark figure.

Without finding my statistics textbooks from undergrad, I'll venture a guess that the data from 80 hours of farming frenzy would be more than enough to get a pretty darn good idea of the drop rate of the thing.


And re: all the charts, why would you take the time to put all that up there based on an assumption that you had no foundation for? Or did you actually have a reason to believe that 1 FBSS drop per 10 hours at frenzy is about average, and I just missed it?

Edit - Oh come on. You admitted that the 1 in 10 hours figure was totally made up, but you still bothered to make those posts?

[Messianic]

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

And re: all the charts, why would you take the time to put all that up there based on an assumption that you had no foundation for?

My guess is....fun? Trying to be helpful?

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Edit - Oh come on. You admitted that the 1 in 10 hours figure was totally made up, but you still bothered to make those posts?

THIS IS A TRAVESTY

I AM DISAPPOINT

[fischsemmel]

I'm all grumpy now.

"Hey guys! Let's just assume for fun that the frenzy has a 99% chance to spawn and has a 99% chance of dropping the FBSS! This means that I got totally screwed by farming frenzy for 18 hours and not getting even a single FBSS!"

^ = totally true... but totally useless. But totally a good idea to put in this thread, because I had fun typing it and I was trying to be helpful, right?

/sigh

[Messianic]

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I'm all grumpy now.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCtQmwJ1WAY

[guineapig]

Originally Posted by fischsemmel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

No, I won't need a ton of people responding. I only need a significant amount of data like what I provided to get a ballpark figure for how rare FBSS drops are. The number of them on the server, the time the server has been, how often they are farmed, all that can contribute to the answer I want... but I hardly need 100+ people to tell me how long it took each of them to get their FBSS in order to have a ballpark figure.

Well, if only 10 people reply and 5 reply with smug answers like I got mine third spawn or I got 2 in a row then your figures are going to be pretty darn inaccurate. If you wanted any statistics that are worth using you would want a significant number of replies. Hence why I said you would want a ton of replies to get usable information.... especially on these forums.

The devs would be able to tell you the exact number on the server but I'm not sure they would be willing to do that. It doesn't hurt to ask nicely but keep in mind that they are super busy with more important things.

We already gave you a ballpark though, so I'm not sure what else you want.
If you spent 24 hours there non-stop I'm pretty sure you would get one.
But, there is always a chance that you won't.
That's the best answer you are going to get.

[fischsemmel]

Originally Posted by guineapig [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

We already gave you a ballpark though, so I'm not sure what else you want

"Info" that has been given in this thread re: the rarity of the fbss:

1. 18 hours, 109 spawn chances, 8 frenzied ghouls, 0 fbss.

2. "i've seen 3 drop in about a 5 hour span."

3. a bunch of charts and stuff by Droodler that was all based on an admittedly arbitrary number

4. "I'm guessing that about 1-2 sashes drop on average per day." -> "My guess is that there are somewhere between 600-700 sashes in the game right now."


Please point me to which one of these, exactly, gave me a ballpark figure for how long it takes to get an fbss drop at frenzy. And remember, people pulling arbitrary numbers out of thin air does not give us anything useful.

[BobSmith]

Thanks Droodler. I understand now.

I checked the latest EQEMU database. The frenzied ghould has a 1 in 10 chance to spawn, and each frenzied ghoul has a 1 in 5 chance to drop an FBSS. I realize this may be very different from P99, but it might be useful as an initial assumption.