Hadden

[eqravenprince]

Someone do the math for me, what are the odds Hadden does not have an earring 16 spawns in a row? Also now he spawns without a pole sometimes and does not have an earring, that's new.

[Zyth]

33.3% chance repeating of course

[Bardp1999]

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the erroneous belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past. Such events, having the quality of historical independence, are referred to as statistically independent. The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more than usually likely to be six because there have recently been less than the usual number of sixes.

[eqravenprince]

Originally Posted by Bardp1999 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the erroneous belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past. Such events, having the quality of historical independence, are referred to as statistically independent. The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more than usually likely to be six because there have recently been less than the usual number of sixes.

I don't believe that any single time it's any more than 25% chance of dropping. But 16 times in a row, only 1% chance as someone else noted.

[TomisFeline]

Originally Posted by Bardp1999 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the erroneous belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past. Such events, having the quality of historical independence, are referred to as statistically independent. The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more than usually likely to be six because there have recently been less than the usual number of sixes.

you unfortunately applied this incorrectly here. Understandable mixup. If he asked 'on the nth spawn, what are the chances - understanding it hasn't spawned yet' your post would be helpful and point out a fallacy.

but he asked, knowing the drop rate, what the probability is of the drop happening, given n chances for it to drop.

see other posts.

[skorge]

i camped Hadden very early in Green when there was zero competition and I never got an earring, i ended up buying one for like 1500p way back then...and I never missed a pop for days...lost track of how many Haddens but it was a LOT. The guy i bought the earring from had already got 3 to drop, so it's pure RNG...just bad luck

[jadier]

Originally Posted by eqravenprince [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Someone do the math for me, what are the odds Hadden does not have an earring 16 spawns in a row? Also now he spawns without a pole sometimes and does not have an earring, that's new.

About 1% assuming the earring has a 25% chance of dropping. So this streak isn’t particularly notable in a game where he’s camped literally thousands of times. But it is unfortunate, so sorry man!

[eqravenprince]

Originally Posted by jadier [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

About 1% assuming the earring has a 25% chance of dropping. So this streak isn’t particularly notable in a game where he’s camped literally thousands of times. But it is unfortunate, so sorry man!

That's what I was coming up with as well. What's particularly concerning though is the fact that Hadden spawns without a fishing pole and no earring.

[Vizax_Xaziv]

Originally Posted by jadier [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

About 1% assuming the earring has a 25% chance of dropping. So this streak isn’t particularly notable in a game where he’s camped literally thousands of times. But it is unfortunate, so sorry man!

Also commonly referred to as my perpetual EverQuest experience

[OuterChimp]

f math.