Why Variance Will Not Help

[easy_lee]

For the uninitiated, what variance is, and why some people want it.

 

Raid mobs currently spawn a static amount of time since they were last killed, just like every other mob or PH in the game. Variance means that raid target spawns happen at an unpredictable, variable time (plus or minus several hours / days from when they would normally respawn).

Many players believe this will promote more raid competition. The idea is that Nihilum will not be able to assemble massive zergs to knock down one raid target after another, since most players have things called lives. That means that some other, smaller guild might have a chance to get a raid target before Nihilum can mobilize.

I don’t think this will actually help the server for a number of reasons.

1. Variance encourages poopsocking and batphoning. You can’t raid variance unless you’re willing and able to log on at any time of day, every day. Most such neckbeards are already members of Nihilum, and so will still get most of the raid targets.
2. You can’t fight if you can’t guess where the competition will be. Rather than promote competition from other guilds, this will just guarantee that raid mobs are grabbed by the first batphoned raid to log in, usually Nihilum. There would be little chance of organizing a counterraid to try and stop them, because there wouldn't be enough people ready to go fight. That means less PvP.
3. Casual raiding under the current system is at least possible. You just have to join Nihilum (sell your soul etc. etc.) and go during their raid times, or join another guild (like Hokuten) and try to contest/"steal" individual spawns. Since these things can be planned in advance for specific times, it’s at least feasible for a casual player with an outside life (gasp!) to raid. Under variance, casual players can’t raid at all. Period. If you don’t believe me, read this warrior guide from blue and see what he has to say about variance.
4. It doesn’t fix the problem. The core problem with raid PvP on Red is that Nihilum has an overwhelming numbers and gear advantage since they effectively owned the server for several years. They’re still going to have an overwhelming numbers and gear advantage under any loot system. Could fix that problem with a server reset, which I'm very much in favor of since it would breathe new life into the system and create a genuine classic feel. Spawning more raid mobs so more guilds would have a shot would also work.

The variance argument isn’t really a call for more competition, but an attack on Nihilum. Sure, a few more pixels might go to other guilds under variance. But the other guilds wouldn’t have had to do anything to earn those pixels. They wouldn’t have to fight Nihilum, or anyone else, for the gear. The only thing it would accomplish is creating a blue-style server where raid pvp almost never happens and casual players can’t fully enjoy the game at all. Even keeping the server exactly how it is, and trying to convince people to go start a (probably pointless) fight with Nihilum over raid targets, would be preferable to another blue server.

Furthermore, simultaneous repops (if they reset mob respawn time like in classic) accomplishes the exact same thing as variance. It just does it without kicking anyone with a life out of the raid scene. If all mobs respawn at the same time, Nihilum has to spread out and thus can be contested for mobs. It’s still not the best solution; most guilds will still try to sneak around and quickly get the mobs Nihilum misses, rather than having PvP battles and actually trying to contest Nihilum. But at least it would be better than having to poopsock, batphone, AND sneak around Nihilum. If you’re trying to bring more pvp and competition to the server, variance is not the way. If you're trying to bring a larger population to the server, variance sure as hell is not the way.

I don’t think variance would be good for anyone.