PSA: Reasonable probability that charm has been nerfed

[Splorf22]

New: Loraen (230 cha on average) vs L50 average mobs: 128 seconds +/- 22s
Old: Loraen (225 cha on average) vs L53 Ilis in Sebilis: 127 seconds +/- 28s

If I am doing my math correctly (never guaranteed!) the average charm on a L50 mob is now probably just over 2 minutes, unlikely (15%) to be over 2:30, and extremely unlikely (<1%) to be 3 minutes, which would be my estimate before the patch. It appears you can now charm L50 mobs with approximately the same duration as L53 mobs prepatch. I used a really simple procedure that somehow I went through graduate school without learning called bootstrapping to determine the variance.

caveat: These are just from my normal play so there are two that I broke early with the goblin ring. That probably skews the duration down slightly, but there is no good way to remove them from the set. On the other hand the fact that I only broke two out of almost 20 speaks for itself.

[Mon Jul 15 18:07:35 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:08:04 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 29s - 6 = 23s
[Mon Jul 15 18:08:23 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:15:17 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 6:54 - 6 = 406s
[Mon Jul 15 18:16:19 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:22:12 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 5:53 - 6 = 347s
[Mon Jul 15 18:22:37 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:25:08 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 2:31+ - 6 = 145s
[Mon Jul 15 18:37:42 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:38:03 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. :21 - 6 = 15s
[Mon Jul 15 18:38:20 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:40:33 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 2:13 - 6 = 127s
[Mon Jul 15 18:54:41 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:56:33 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 1:52 - 6 = 106s
[Mon Jul 15 18:56:57 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Mon Jul 15 18:58:03 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 1:06 - 6 = 60s
[Mon Jul 15 18:58:14 2013] You begin casting Alluring Whispers.
[Mon Jul 15 18:59:57 2013] Your Alluring Whispers spell has worn off. 1:43 - 16 = 87s
[Mon Jul 15 19:00:20 2013] You begin casting Alluring Whispers.
[Mon Jul 15 19:01:03 2013] Your Alluring Whispers spell has worn off. :43 - 16 = 27s
[Mon Jul 15 19:01:13 2013] You begin casting Alluring Whispers.
[Mon Jul 15 19:02:15 2013] Your Alluring Whispers spell has worn off. 1:02 - 16 = 44s
[Mon Jul 15 19:03:05 2013] You begin casting Alluring Whispers.
[Mon Jul 15 19:07:28 2013] Your Alluring Whispers spell has worn off. 4:23 - 16 = 247s
[Tue Jul 16 10:38:38 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Tue Jul 16 10:44:08 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 5:30+ - 6 = 324s
[Tue Jul 16 10:53:25 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Tue Jul 16 10:55:38 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 2:13 - 6 = 127s
[Tue Jul 16 10:55:56 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Tue Jul 16 10:56:45 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. :49 - 6 = 43s
[Tue Jul 16 10:57:20 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Tue Jul 16 10:58:33 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. 1:13 - 6 = 67s
[Tue Jul 16 10:58:52 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Tue Jul 16 10:59:51 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. :59 - 6 = 53s
[Tue Jul 16 11:00:11 2013] You begin casting Allure.
[Tue Jul 16 11:00:57 2013] Your Allure spell has worn off. :46 - 6 = 40s

Old Data: http://www.project1999.org/forums/sh...ad.php?t=92423