Hadden

[eqravenprince]

Someone do the math for me, what are the odds Hadden does not have an earring 16 spawns in a row? Also now he spawns without a pole sometimes and does not have an earring, that's new.

[Zyth]

33.3% chance repeating of course

[Bardp1999]

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the erroneous belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past. Such events, having the quality of historical independence, are referred to as statistically independent. The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more than usually likely to be six because there have recently been less than the usual number of sixes.

[jadier]

Someone do the math for me, what are the odds Hadden does not have an earring 16 spawns in a row? Also now he spawns without a pole sometimes and does not have an earring, that's new.

About 1% assuming the earring has a 25% chance of dropping. So this streak isn’t particularly notable in a game where he’s camped literally thousands of times. But it is unfortunate, so sorry man!

[eqravenprince]

About 1% assuming the earring has a 25% chance of dropping. So this streak isn’t particularly notable in a game where he’s camped literally thousands of times. But it is unfortunate, so sorry man!

That's what I was coming up with as well. What's particularly concerning though is the fact that Hadden spawns without a fishing pole and no earring.

[eqravenprince]

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the erroneous belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past. Such events, having the quality of historical independence, are referred to as statistically independent. The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more than usually likely to be six because there have recently been less than the usual number of sixes.

I don't believe that any single time it's any more than 25% chance of dropping. But 16 times in a row, only 1% chance as someone else noted.

[OuterChimp]

f math.

[Bonethunder]

Sounds like p99 luck to me, i once decided i would try to camp a fbss after killing around 30 frenzies i left guk

[eqravenprince]

Sounds like p99 luck to me, i once decided i would try to camp a fbss after killing around 30 frenzies i left guk

After you get to 43 frenzies in a row and no fbss, then you match my bad luck.

[eqravenprince]

17 in a row no earring

[Vallaen]

17 in a row no earring

the 18th time is the lucky charm

[chaser95]

i can agree with this when i used to farm it on blue had pole or earring no in between and now in the last two weeks ive done different rotations on him 9-12 straight and nothing and even the people before me and after are getting the same results something has been changed just my 2 cents.

[eqravenprince]

Finally got it on the 18th try... I still say something ain't right.

[eqravenprince]

Next spawn is at 5:57:25 CST. My list is below in order, Jhenfer and Weydan not online. Tecla is aware, but not sure he'll be on at that time.

Tecla
Jhenfer
Weydan

[fastboy21]

The trick to camping items like this in EQ is all mental...if you can force yourself to only think about what you're going to do with the item when you get it you'll prosper; if you start letting thoughts in about how much of your life you're wasting at a stupid camp inside a video game you're likely to jump off a bridge.

[TomisFeline]

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the erroneous belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past. Such events, having the quality of historical independence, are referred to as statistically independent. The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more than usually likely to be six because there have recently been less than the usual number of sixes.

you unfortunately applied this incorrectly here. Understandable mixup. If he asked 'on the nth spawn, what are the chances - understanding it hasn't spawned yet' your post would be helpful and point out a fallacy.

but he asked, knowing the drop rate, what the probability is of the drop happening, given n chances for it to drop.

see other posts.

[skorge]

i camped Hadden very early in Green when there was zero competition and I never got an earring, i ended up buying one for like 1500p way back then...and I never missed a pop for days...lost track of how many Haddens but it was a LOT. The guy i bought the earring from had already got 3 to drop, so it's pure RNG...just bad luck

[HalflingSpergand]

I used to be unemployed too


But then i opened a morgue to deal with all the coivid 911 bodies
$$$$$ wooh9o

[cd288]

Rare drop is rare = “something must be bugged!”

[loramin]

Rare drop is rare = “something must be bugged!”

Well I think the confusing part was that it used to be "pole or earring", and that stopped being the case at a similar time as a string of bad rolls.

But in positive news I can confirm I just picked up my earring for my Green toon today; miracles do happen ;)

[Vizax_Xaziv]

About 1% assuming the earring has a 25% chance of dropping. So this streak isn’t particularly notable in a game where he’s camped literally thousands of times. But it is unfortunate, so sorry man!

Also commonly referred to as my perpetual EverQuest experience

[Vizax_Xaziv]

After you get to 43 frenzies in a row and no fbss, then you match my bad luck.

Man....it was funny playing classic wow and running dungeons where people would complain about the drop rates. They don't know true MMO pain