Spawn chance and drop chance thread

[Vdaria]

Hey all, the wiki is a great resource. But one thing that's consistently missing is drop rate and spawn rate. I know it's a pain to estimate, but you only need a few data points to get a good number. I put in a few, such as 5% for vopuk shralok and 1% for the AC in oot, which might not be accurate but they feel about right - one idol every 1 hours 40 minutes and one AC ring every 10 hours.

If you feel like you have any data from your logs on a spawn rate or drop rate for a mob on green, whether it's Ambassador D'vinn or A Frenzied Ghoul, I bet we'd all appreciate knowing. The reason I think we'd all appreciate knowing is really it just lets us plan better. For example, consider someone considering camping the AC. If they had no idea how long the camp was, they might say "sure" and be disappointed when they have to leave in 3 hours. Conversely, they might find a way to set aside 10 hours when their number comes up on the list by planning in advance or listing while on vacation so that while they're not guaranteed a ring, they are guaranteed a solid shot at one (~63.4% chance).

Individual data points are good, but the more the better (especially if you've camped an item 5+ times). An example of what I'm talking about: I camped frenzy for 5 hours 47 minutes today, and got 5 moonstone rings and 1 FBSS. 347 minutes / 28 minute respawn = 12 cycles, so 36 PHs with 6 frenzies, so 1/6 spawn rate and 1/6 drop rate. Obviously these values are likely false, but the more you get the better your estimate becomes.

[Sabin76]

I know it's a pain to estimate, but you only need a few data points to get a good number.

As you mentioned later, it's really the fact that everyone can contribute that would give a good estimate. Small sample sizes are HORRIBLE for estimating the experimental probability of something happening. However, combining many small sample sizes together into a larger data set means no one person has to sit there forever to get the information.

I will likely contribute to this in some way, but I'm not sure the forums is the best place to collect and organize data. I would recommend a wiki page that we can then just reference the appropriate stat in the mob pages and as more information gets added, the stat updates.

[Vdaria]

As you mentioned later, it's really the fact that everyone can contribute that would give a good estimate. Small sample sizes are HORRIBLE for estimating the experimental probability of something happening. However, combining many small sample sizes together into a larger data set means no one person has to sit there forever to get the information.

I will likely contribute to this in some way, but I'm not sure the forums is the best place to collect and organize data. I would recommend a wiki page that we can then just reference the appropriate stat in the mob pages and as more information gets added, the stat updates.

Oh I agree entirely. This thread was just for visibility and brainstorming - I was thinking of a google sheets repository for data but your idea is probably better.

[Vdaria]

Sorry I didn't include this in the OP, I didn't know about the existence of google forms. Here is a rudimentary submission form. It collects 5 pieces of data: the mob name, the amount of time you spent camping the mob, the number of times you saw the mob, the number of common items you got and the number of rare items you got. Please feel free to fill it out whenever you do a camp. It doesn't have to be precise, but the more accurate the better! I'll periodically update the wiki with all the data I get.

Spawn Chance/Drop Chance Submission Form (https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdnKZVHThUOAginpE4AUdBKemHxLST_iVjPyAXRI2Jc CfoOCw/viewform?usp=sf_link)

[Swish]

...which might not be accurate but they feel about right

The wiki in a sentence <3 :)