View Full Version : Official RNF Test of Intelligence
http://i.imgur.com/0YUVQQI.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/LbxJlsg.jpg
Hasbinbad
10-13-2013, 07:00 PM
yes, definitely.
Cecily
10-13-2013, 07:01 PM
Which one poisons the witch?
Bardalicious
10-13-2013, 07:05 PM
statistically, yes.. changing to the other bag increases your chances of winning the stone
isn't this common knowledge? lol
Estolcles
10-13-2013, 07:05 PM
I stick with the left, only because I suck at stats, and I'm a southpaw, so I'll go with the side life dealt me with.
Kagatob
10-13-2013, 07:06 PM
That depends, what race is the person being given the choice?
Fistandantalus
10-13-2013, 07:08 PM
Tunare would buckle with all the mod rods i'm summoning laying around.Just Sayin
Recycled Children
10-13-2013, 07:13 PM
Tunare doesn't drop the Manastone.
Lojik
10-13-2013, 07:29 PM
Tunare or Lunare
Lu|z Sext
10-13-2013, 07:43 PM
i met that guy once
still cool as fuck
Barkingturtle
10-13-2013, 08:02 PM
Thread would be funnier if instead of three bags she had three holes.
I can't be here all the time to tell you how to post.
Classic
10-13-2013, 09:30 PM
Those bags remind me of large loose squirrel testicles.
I would take the one of the left.
Ahldagor
10-14-2013, 12:29 AM
kill tunare and open all the bags
Daldolma
10-14-2013, 12:32 AM
this was cool in the 70s when anyone still knew who the fuck monty hall was
Ghost of White Ranger
10-14-2013, 12:51 AM
statistically, yes.. changing to the other bag increases your chances of winning the stone
isn't this common knowledge? lol
Hasbinbad
10-14-2013, 01:11 AM
this was cool in the 70s when anyone still knew who the fuck monty hall was
lol ur old.
isn't this common knowledge? lol
I wrote a program after reading a lot of mathematicians were only convinced after seeing computer simulations. In 9000 trials, switching makes you win ~6000 (2/3), not switching only ~3000 (1/3)
#include <stdio.h>
#include <stdlib.h>
#define MONTY_TRIALS 9000
bool monty_hall_problem(bool switch_doors)
{
bool doors[3] = { false, false, false };
doors[rand()%3] = true;
unsigned int choice = rand() % 3;
return (switch_doors) ? !doors[choice] : doors[choice];
}
int main(int argc, char* argv[])
{
int switch_wins = 0, no_switch_wins = 0;
for (int i = 0; i < MONTY_TRIALS; ++i)
{
if (monty_hall_problem(true)) ++switch_wins;
if (monty_hall_problem(false)) ++no_switch_wins;
}
printf("Switch: %d\tNo Switch: %d", switch_wins, no_switch_wins);
return 0;
}
I forgot to seed rand there but then I did and the same shit happens anyway DUh
Systolic
10-14-2013, 04:25 PM
Monty Hall question.
Variable change. Always take the switch. You get an additional 17% equity.
Recycled Children
10-14-2013, 04:35 PM
lol ur old.
Says the 35 year old.
You all done fucked up my thread with your slightly higher than average level of knowledge/intelligence/age.
This works much better elsewhere on the internet.
ncapatina
10-14-2013, 06:06 PM
It's amazing how many people refuse to believe that switching improves your odds.
I remember a day at work about 3-4 years ago where a co-worker (a very solid network engineer, not a dude flipping burgers) and I got into a heated discussion about it. He just wouldn't believe it so I made it easy on him and I'll do it for the retards here.
Play out each scenario with the prize being in bag #2. Keep in mind that when Tunare in this case reveals a second bag, it CANNOT be the winning bag. So if you've picked bag 1, bag 3 will be revealed 100% of the time. If you pick bag 3 it will be bag one revealed 100% of the time. If you pick bag 2, it could be either.
You pick bag one and keep it = lose.
You pick bag two and keep it = win.
You pick bag three and keep it = lose.
You pick bag one and switch to bag two = win.
You pick bag one and switch to bag three = cannot be done, revealed as a loser.
You pick bag two and switch to bag one = lose.
You pick bag two and switch to bag three = lose.
You pick bag three and switch to bag one = cannot be done, revealed as a loser.
You pick bag three and switch to bag two = win.
So you can very simply look at this and say, if I stay I have a 1 in 3 chance (33%), if I switch I have a 2 in 4 chance (50%).
Switch every time. Like was stated above, you improve your odds 17%.
ncapatina
10-14-2013, 06:07 PM
Oh, and also this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
Tecmos Deception
10-14-2013, 06:46 PM
You all done fucked up my thread with your slightly higher than average level of knowledge/intelligence/age.
This works much better elsewhere on the internet.
It's so funny how many people refused to believe this for so long. It doesn't help an average Joe that so many of the explanations are kinda roundabout and confusing ways of explaining it though, imo.
What's better, people? A 50% chance of picking the right bag, or a 33% chance of picking the right bag? When you make your first pick, you're only getting the 33% chance of being correct. After Tunare reveals an empty bag though, you can either stick with your 33% chance original choice or switch to the 50% chance bag. Derp.
DrKvothe
10-14-2013, 07:19 PM
It doubles your chance of being right, actually.
If you switch, the only way you lose is if your initial choice was correct, which was a 33% chance. That means you win 66% of the time when you switch.
Hasbinbad
10-14-2013, 07:21 PM
MATH HURTS MAI BRAIN LAL
All you people saying it increases your odds 17%, to 50% are wrong according to my computer simulation and vos savant herself.
http://i.imgur.com/edaeLje.png
Those who swap always get the opposite of their original choice, so those who swap have 2/3 chance of winning the car (Carlton 2005).
The outcome is fairly obvious from the 1 line of code
return (switch_doors) ? !doors[choice] : doors[choice];
If you switch, you invert your choice. You had a 2/3 chance of being wrong the first time (1/3 chance of winning)
radditsu
10-15-2013, 08:47 AM
All you people saying it increases your odds 17%, to 50% are wrong according to my computer simulation and vos savant herself.
http://i.imgur.com/edaeLje.png
Those who swap always get the opposite of their original choice, so those who swap have 2/3 chance of winning the car (Carlton 2005).
The outcome is fairly obvious from the 1 line of code
return (switch_doors) ? !doors[choice] : doors[choice];
If you switch, you invert your choice. You had a 2/3 chance of being wrong the first time (1/3 chance of winning)
H00t H00t faggot.
Rhambuk
10-15-2013, 10:13 AM
all 3 bags are empty because tunare is a lieing bitch.
Jaxon
10-15-2013, 02:50 PM
But it's so simple!
http://i.imgur.com/LbxJlsg.jpg
If the manastone is in the bag on the right, choose the bag on the right.
If the manastone is in the bag on the left, choose the bag on the left.
If Tunare is a lying bitch, take all three tink bags and leave.
ncapatina
10-15-2013, 06:09 PM
All you people saying it increases your odds 17%, to 50% are wrong according to my computer simulation and vos savant herself.
http://i.imgur.com/edaeLje.png
Those who swap always get the opposite of their original choice, so those who swap have 2/3 chance of winning the car (Carlton 2005).
The outcome is fairly obvious from the 1 line of code
return (switch_doors) ? !doors[choice] : doors[choice];
If you switch, you invert your choice. You had a 2/3 chance of being wrong the first time (1/3 chance of winning)
You are correct by the way the question was phrased. You have a 17% better chance when switching if you select a random option (switch or don't switch). If you always switch vs. never switch then the scenario plays out like your simulation.
Estolcles
10-15-2013, 06:31 PM
http://i.imgur.com/LbxJlsg.jpg
Never playing a game of chance with a Sicilian with death on the line.
That or playing a game of chance with a Goddess with a Manastone on the line.
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