Iksar Shaman - Solo Challenges?

[bcbrown]

Originally Posted by DeathsSilkyMist [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

But now you admit Normal Distributions exist. Uniform Distributions exist too. Please show us the averages of how much damage the DoT will do using a Normal Distribution, and a Uniform Distribution.

Originally Posted by 7thGate [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I have no idea why you're just averaging the timing and assuming that's correct when there's a nonlinear impact from the different samples in the distribution.

You can't use a normal distribution for this calculation. It makes no sense. It's not possible. It's not applicable.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

You can't use a normal distribution for this calculation. It makes no sense. It's not possible.

You haven't explained why this is impossible. You simply claim this is the case.

You have an equal chance to proc per swing, which we both agree upon. This is basically the equivalent of a dice roll.

In the case of 10.4%, you could easily round that to 10 and say this is rolling a dice with 10 sides.

You can in fact do a normal distribution on coin flips and dice rolls. Do you disagree?

[Penish]

cant believe you guys still engage this chimp, lol

[Duik]

I once ate a banana, it was 3.2 oranges better than a pineapple.

[bcbrown]

Much like weapon procs, coin flips are a binomial distribution. This weapon proc is a binomial with p = 10.4%. Coin flipping is a binomial distribution with p = 50%. The way to calculate the expected number of Heads, or the expected number of coins, is to note that for a binomial distribution, the expected outcome is equal to np - that is, with 10 coin flips, the expected number of heads is 10 * 0.5 = 5. To be specific, a single coin flip is a Bernoulli distribution with p=0.5, and flipping ten coins is a Binomial distribution with p=0.5 and n=10.

Whenever you flip a coin, or whenever you swing a weapon, the statistical word for what you are doing is "drawing a sample" from the distribution. If you flip ten coins, you have drawn ten samples, or sampled the distribution ten times.

There is a law called the Law of Large Numbers that says that if you draw enough samples, the mean of the samples will approach the mean of the distribution. 'Mean' is the word in statistics that means what most people think of when they think of the word 'average'. The mean of a Binomial(n, p) is n*p, which is why above we said that the expected number of heads after ten flips of a fair coin is 5.

The Central Limit Theorem is a very important theorem in statistics, and it is this theorem that must be the cause of your confusion. It says this: if you sample a distribution, the mean of that sample is is a normal distribution. This does not mean you can then substitute this for the original distribution! It's a completely different calculation.

Here's a longer explanation of the previous paragraph. Say you're sampling from the weapon damage distribution - you're getting hit by some mob. As you take successive samples - as the mob takes one swing after another - you can calculate the average damage taken so far. Those successively calculated averages, those are samples of a different distribution. That different distribution is a Normal distribution. It does not mean that the distribution (weapon swings) from which you are sampling and calculating averages is normally distributed.

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[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

...

You didn't answer my question.

Do you agree that you can use a normal distribution on coin flips and dice rolls?

I am not discussing Binomial Distributions.

[bcbrown]

I did, you just cannot understand the answer.

Originally Posted by 7thGate [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

DSM, you're not correct

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I did, you just cannot understand the answer.

It's a simple yes or no answer. I understand precisely what you are saying, you are simply refusing to listen to what I am saying.

Do you agree that you can use a normal distribution on coin flips and dice rolls, assuming an infinite number of single rolls/flips?

[Ripqozko]

This is what kittens is now, a bunch of DSM

[bcbrown]

I tried, man.

Originally Posted by 7thGate [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

You gave it a good shot, bcbrown.