The Red 99 PvP Blog

[Kraftwerk]

Add in the fact that the market of today is an algo driven headline fueled mess with very few real traders. Do some research into retail money flows over past few years (95% of the weeks are money withdrawn). Market is broken, I stopped trading a while ago even though watching AAPL options past 9-12 months has been very enticing.

[fiegi 2.5]

damn this thread is unreadable now

[Smedy]

Originally Posted by Herb9 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Nah, even people as smart as I am usually don't have the drive or discipline to become independently wealthy by their own means.

Meanwhile this guy is taking photos of his anime-poster bedroom and drawing arrows to various playstation and other 200$ units, living like a doctor

[ForeverLost]

I don't know anything about trading, but my stepdad runs a small home business doing trades for other people. He's pretty poor :/

[Herb9]

Originally Posted by GrobbGangsta [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I will break it down for you, Noah.

As a preface, I have no doubt that Herb/Oddjob is a smart guy and has realized some short term success with his day trading. The problem is he is making the same wrong mistakes/assumptions that all "retail" investors (day traders) make:

1. Because we have semi-efficient capital markets, the only people that can make money on the market over an extended period of time are institutional investors with inside information. Studying past models or forecasting future performance is essentially completely ineffective according to every person who knows anything about finance. OJ's "system" has a shelf life of months or maybe a year before it breaks down because he does not have access to any inside information. Semi-efficient capital markets work/are legal because some integration of inside information with institutional investments is still permitted by SEC regs.

2. When OJ's system breaks down (and it will), he will not have any exit opportunities. The only thing his skill set as a day trader translates to is being an institutional investor. PE funds and hedge funds are not going to hire some guy who has "failed day trader" on his resume. There is no pedigree. In addition, trading desks for big IBs will not hire someone with no institutional experience in their mid 30's.

If you are a smart guy with a penchant for finding arbitrage opportunities, you should start studying for the CFA/Series 7/etc. and apply for an analyst job before you inevitably fall off the day trade cliff.

To the guy who said it's ordinary income, no, there are some technicalities involved but I promise you, I owe cumulative 15% gains, I'm not taxed ordinary in and out. I'll just say 6E and 6B and hope you figure out the rest. Not paying taxes is something I've been trained on since childhood.

To this guy who seems to have a little understanding of some basics but is strongly rooting for my demise:

Why would I ever apply for a job? I grew up in a family of investors, everyone around me is an investor, I owned real estate and was 121'ing myself up to 250k taxfree profit off my first condo at 19, my 2nd condo at 22, and my first house at 26.

Why would you think a scalper would be at all exposed or someone who would ever apply for a job at a trading desk? If the system fails, and anything below 85% is failure, then I update it until it works or I withdraw my money and put it back in RE. To think that I'm exposed as a lone scalper is pretty naive. If you don't think I understand the urgency of the market, you missed my earlier post about making hay while the sun shines.

I tweaked until I got a system from 60% to 85% plus, my backtesting analysis is, frankly, brilliantly efficient, and I have non-existant slippage because of my whole sale account with the best brokerage on the planet, my trades are executed in under 1/10th of a second at exactly the price I set my bids at, every time.

Now if you could eliminate slippage, and your goal was only 8pips per trade with trailing stops, do you think you could possibly imagine a way a guy could get that to work for a few years at a time? Because I've been doing this since '07, and I've not had a red month in 4 years.

My testing says my system presents a trade .86 times per day, per symbol I track, with enough movement to fill a 20pip target before going 10 pips backwards. These are usually the beginnings of the trend for the day, and can almost always be followed with some HiLo scalps.

Check out the finance nerds pvp blog, he's a killer with an HP10b.

[Herb9]

Originally Posted by ForeverLost [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I don't know anything about trading, but my stepdad runs a small home business doing trades for other people. He's pretty poor :/

Trading OPM (other people's money) means you don't have the discipline or ability to save up the reserves needed to trade your own money, like Hipponole had to do.

Your stepdad needs to get a loan, or needs to become better at living below his means while he puts together his own capital to risk for much greater rewards.

[BigSlip]

wtf is this shit

[HippoNipple]

Originally Posted by Herb9 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Well it's my wholesale account, so I only pay $4.50 in and out per trade, and I keep 100% of profit less 15% cap gains. +6k from dec 1 to dec 11 -15% means I can take off until the holidays are over.

Only slightly difficult part is waking up for london opens but I only have to roll out of bed to trade. Also,illegal for brokers to leverage trades from Roth IRA or I wouldn't even have to pay that 15% tax, sigh.

Sorry you had to sit at a desk and trade someone else's money. I got a 15k loan to get mine started and get to set my own hours, make my own system, and be my own boss, sucks you didn't have the drive or resources to do this yourself and got burnt being someones bitch.

Retirement by 35 with a dozen free n clear sfh rentals and 1m+ liquidity is the goal. Im on pace to hit that by 33 but new regulations may be coming to severely limit individual retail traders ability to leverage so I gotta make hay while the sun shines.

Lol you are dumb. It is only 15% if you hold it for over a year. Unless your income is next to nothing. If you have held that trade for over a year and are just making $6k then you are for sure balling on that kind of income bro.

Poser pretending to make it big. If I was trading 15k and trying to grind out enough to buy some hot pockets I would just shoot myself.

[HippoNipple]

Originally Posted by Herb9 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Trading OPM (other people's money) means you don't have the discipline or ability to save up the reserves needed to trade your own money, like Hipponole had to do.

Your stepdad needs to get a loan, or needs to become better at living below his means while he puts together his own capital to risk for much greater rewards.

I don't trade other peoples money. I'm a financial advisor. Placing trades as a broker is a shit job. Just another basement dweller pretending he is big time because he got a 15k loan. Good work son.

[ForeverLost]

Originally Posted by Herb9 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Trading OPM (other people's money) means you don't have the discipline or ability to save up the reserves needed to trade your own money, like Hipponole had to do.

Your stepdad needs to get a loan, or needs to become better at living below his means while he puts together his own capital to risk for much greater rewards.

Yeah, the problem is really that my mom is addicted to shopping (like really it's a serious problem, don't make fun!). They've been trying to save up some money so he can trade his own, and in the meantime they're following pretend money using his algorithms and that seems to be going well. I'm cautiously optimistic about their future [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]