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Cause of failure in normal circumstances remains mysterious -- was starting to think that maybe something about some linux wifi implementations (or kernel versions, who knows) was making UDP packets much more likely to be delivered out of order... but on closer inspection, even when the server list fragments come through perfectly in order, the client will still choke.
But only on one of my machines. Two laptops running Linux Mint (17.0 and 17.2), both about the same distance and equally obstructed from the router (it's on a different floor); one has no problems with server select, the other fails more than 90% of the time unless the middleman filter is running (in which case it succeeds more than 90% of the time so far).