[bcbrown]

Originally Posted by 7thGate [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

DSM, you're not correct about the DOT calculation.

For DD procs, you can just do a straight average of PPM * damage per proc to get expected damage per minute, because the timing doesn't change it at all. This is because with each success valued the same regardless of sequencing, the mean of a binomial distribution is just the probability of success * number of swings, and the PPM system sets the probability of success such that this always comes out to the number of PPM.

This is not the case with a DOT proc because every proc is not equally valuable, you have to calculate the contribution each branch makes to the average individually and sum them to get the correct average. BCBrown is correct in his analysis. I have no idea why you're just averaging the timing and assuming that's correct when there's a nonlinear impact from the different samples in the distribution.

You don't have a 31.2% chance to proc with three swings at 10.4% each, you have a 29.07% chance. You get 0.312 procs of expected value, but 0.0213 of them are bound up in the cases where you proc two or three times out of the three swings, so your chances of proccing at least once are only 29.07%.

You gave it a good shot, bcbrown.

Thanks for taking the time to weigh in, 7thGate. I agree completely.

Originally Posted by DeathsSilkyMist [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Because the fight lasts 2 minutes, you have a total of 1.56 procs. This means you are guaranteed 1 DoT proc somehwere within the fight on average.

This just isn't true. Not accurate. This entire approach is based on a flawed foundation of inaccurate reasoning.