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The problem is you thinking your every-man "logic" is a substitute for expertise.
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Not to further high-jack, but I shared CDC current best guess estimates of COVID IFR - the actual numbers, not my interpretation - and compared it directly to IFR of flu, also from CDC. Pretty straight forward. No logical leaps there, just apples to apples comparison. If you think there is an error, feel free to respond in that thread.