Only somewhat related -- if you want a more realistic expectation of the damage you'll do, just skip the part where you multiply the weapon damage by 2.
Explanation:
The calculations people use assume that every hit lands, and for max damage. Even the wiki labels the total as "Average damage" ...
Average_Slash = (2 * Weapon_Base) + Bonus_Modifier + STR Modifier
...that is certainly not true.
After parsing logs of hundreds of fights, I've found that when you are looking at average damage per swings (counting misses!), the real number is reliably close to the actual weapon damage.
For instance, with a 7/23 weapon vs. an evenly matched mob (blue or white), you can expect that your average damage will be something close to 7, even though your maximum hit (pre-20) is 14.
...
Also I found that strength has little to no effect on rates of missing or whether you get more reliably closer to max damage, prior to level 20. I was pretty surprised by that, since it was contrary to the common wisdom.
(I haven't done post-lvl 20 research yet, since I haven't gotten that far yet!)
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