Quote:
Originally Posted by Fael
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Getting two in 18 minutes is probably much more rare than you not getting one in 26 hours.
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Say the chance of it spawning is 5%. Then the chance of getting two in a row the moment you start camping it is .05^2 = .0025. The chance of getting none for 270 consecutive spawns is .95^270 = .00000097, i.e. much less likely.
Say the chance of it spawning is 1%. Then the chance of getting two in a row from the get-go is .01^2 = .0001. The chance of getting none for 270 consecutive spawns is .99^270 = .067, i.e. much more likely.
So if the Wiki information is correct, getting the spawn twice in a row is by no means an impressive feat compared to missing it 270 times in a row. If the assumed probability of 1% people have suggested in this thread is correct, then neither one is astronomically unlikely but getting the spawn twice in a row is the rarer occurrence (although, again, the event here is that you just come in to camp, and the next two spawns are both what you're looking for, not that you camp it for a while and at some point get two in a row).