btw, your poker analogy is good, but doesnt apply because you are removing cards from the deck, hence every round your odds of drawing to that flush change for better or worse depending on the previous card or cards put out (depending which game ur playing).
a closer analogy would be blackjack, but with a brand new deck for each hand.
each pop (be it ph or the rare mob) is a completely separate encounter, and what pops has absolutely 0% to do with what popped before that.
not trying to be a dick, just explaining
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