Quote:
Originally Posted by Splorf22
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Well I think there were some reasonable reasons to suspect the polls (e.g. the Bradley effect) but as it happens they were extremely accurate.
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Eh, after 2008 I think the Bradley effect was essentially out of play. Republicans had done a good enough job of rebranding racism as Obama demonism, to the point that those unlikely to vote for Obama would have had a comfortable enough excuse to admit selecting Romney. That's not to say voting for Romney was necessarily based on racism -- just that Republicans clearly courted that voter market.
Romney also was polling at a higher share of the white vote than any Republican candidate since 1988, so it's not like there was much room for the Bradley effect to kick in. He was polled at 59-60% of the white vote to Obama's 38%, which is a massive lead. It just seems unlikely that those numbers had room to be significantly fudged based on the Bradley effect.