I definitely agree that I'm fizzling too much on skills I've maxed, and not fizzling nearly enough on skills near zero.
Casting a level 9 spell with 0-5 skill used to look like this:
Fizzle
Fizzle
Fizzle
Fizzle
Fizzle
Fizzle
Fizzle
Fizzle
Fizzle
Cast
On the other hand, casting a level 9 spell with maxed skill used to have about a 5% fail rate. I'm observing something more like a 15% fail rate. When grouping, I have to double-tap my heals, because they tend to fizzle the first time, despite maxed Alteration.
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