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Old 04-24-2010, 01:24 AM
Dabamf Dabamf is offline
Sarnak


Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 203
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samuel [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
Not completely on topic, but...

Today Vox spawned at 7am est, then Inny a couple hours later and then CT a couple hours later (the OP says Naggy too, wasn't aware).

If these four targets are on a +/- 48 hours variance as stated here...

"Spawn Variance

A variance of +/- 48 hours will be added to the following: Lord Nagafen, Lady Vox, Cazic-Thule, Innoruuk.
A variance of +/- 24 hours will be added to the following: Dracoliche, Maestro of Rancor.
*Phinigel will remain a static 12 hour spawn."

...What are the odds that these mobs respawn in this type of sequential order?
The odds are 100%, because it happened.

Variance has been in a while. This is the first time IIRC that so many raid targets spawned at similar times. Welcome to random number generators.

To the OP, I live in Asia and play completely opposite times as the USA, and I feel like every spawn is always while I'm at work. How could we have completely opposite experiences? It's basic psychology that outliers stick out in our mind more than commonalities, and the result is we mistakenly rely on our memories to draw patterns, which results in skewed perceptions of chance events.

The variance system is the best system we could have. Raid spawns are unpredictable, practically uncampable, and could happen at 9pm EST when 600 people are on or at 5am when 200 are. It's as fair as it possibly could be.