I thought the way casting skills worked was that your skill had to be relevant to the level you got the spell. I.e. enchanter gets invis at 1 but shaman doesn't get til 29. Enchanter would only need 10 in divination to have a 90% or whatever chance to cast whereas a shaman would need to have 150 in divination to have the same chance to cast.
I remember this being an issue in kunark when shaman and druids got superior heal because they were more likely to fizzle it than a cleric who got it at level 34.
That said I have noticed some abnormal fizzles for me also. Fizzling dots 3 times in a row, heals three times in a row, canni three times in a row, with maxed skills at 50. *shrug*
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