My own guess is that there are some peope who will play Red exclusively or almost so, because that is what they really like to do. Then there are people who will want to try it out. The majority of these will go back to blue almost exclusively, because they would rather play EQ than deal with all the sadism, smack talk and general craziness that will occur on that server. No offense.
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I think the server will have maybe 350 people on peak, by the end of the first week. By the end of the first month, more like 250. About half of these 200 would be "stolen" from blue, IMO.