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If the variance was removed, and raid encounters were reset (let's say Vox, Naggy, CT, Inny all pop at 8 CST on a Friday)
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You are assuming the whole world lives in your timezone?
Varianz is for an even contest between different countries ... they can pop during chinese / european / australian / american / mexican whatever prime time, randomly ... so basicly everyone one has a chance to get a spawn.
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With four raid targets up at the same time guilds can be spaced out evenly without any friction in zones over who has claim on what mob
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right, we currently have ~6? raid cappable guilds ... are 2 of them on vacation in your example?