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Originally Posted by bcbrown
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Yep, as you said, when in doubt math it out. It may change as you level and the damage bonus becomes more important and DW skill increases.
The DW wiki includes a formula as well as a table for lvl 50/60, and I've found it to be accurate. The last time I parsed DW success rate was at level 51, where I found it to be 65%, matching that table. The example I gave was for monks with a higher skill cap; they should be at ~75% at lvl50 but I don't have a monk to test that.
One method for checking DW success rates was already posted, using fight duration divided by adjusted delay and then scaling by DW and DA skill checks to compute an expected number of swings and comparing to the actually recorded number of swings. That works well, but I prefer a different methodology that with a few assumptions allows you to directly measure the DA and DW success rates. Both, of course, require different weapon types in mainhand and offhand so you can tell which is which.
The central assumption is that both weapons have an adjusted delay significantly longer than one second. In that case, if you have two swings in the same second you can assume that's a double attack. So first you collect all swings or attempted swings, then count how many timestamps have a single swing and how many have two. The ratio is the double attack success rate. Then, you add the counts to find the total number of successful dual wield skill checks. Dividing the fight length by the adjusted delay gives you the expected number of swings if dual wield is always successful, and dividing the actual number of successful DW skill checks by that theoretical maximum gives you the dual wield success rate.
Here's an example from when I was level 51, Infestation offhand, 22% worn haste. There were 405 timestamps with a single piercing swing and 457 with two piercing swings, giving a 53% DA success rate. The fight duration was 1944 seconds, the adjusted delay was 14.75, and so with a 100% DW success rate you'd expect 1317 rounds of attacks. Compared to the sum of 405 and 457, that's 862/1317, or an observed 65.4% dual wield success rate.
This approach breaks down when the offhand is fast enough to potentially swing twice in the same second, so for example I can't use it with my shiny new Barbed Scale Whip.
I hadn't known that DA doesn't fire offhand till lvl30, that's interesting. My baby ranger is 30 already so I guess testing that will have to wait for the next ranger. Another interesting point of trivia for dual wield is that you can skill up while wielding a shield. Also, Jimjam once mentioned that weapon procs can fire even when you fail a dual wield skill check, which is part of why I think it can be a good idea to put a weapon with a good proc but a poor ratio in the offhand.
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Yeah you can absolutely calculate it, just wasn't all that sure it was worth the time before mid 50s and I'm still using 2h almost exclusively.
For DA not triggering on offhand until 150, I wanted to test that on my 16 rogue that just got DA. I read it a couple times but I can't find anywhere that confirms it. Lately I was leveling 1hs and a had a croaking dirk in OH and I can say OH doesn't fire all that much so maybe it can DA but since DW hardly ever triggers and DA on main hand either so maybe it is possible but a statistically insignificant chance.
Didn't know you can skill DW with a shield, that's... counter intuitive. I know you can trigger a proc on a miss but never noticed you could proc on a non swing. I guess it is a byproduct of normalized proc rates, your odds are probably based on swing speed and it pops off regardless of outcome. Much simpler to land on the target value from a programming perspective that way too when you think about it.
For good OH procs on weapons with bad ratios, on one hand you'd have to find a proc worthy of gimping your damage for it but on the other hand for a class like rogue, apparently like 80% of your damage comes from MH (backstabs) so swapping for something like a locustlure OH might be worth the occasional proc if you're losing literally like, 3% of your total damage output vs a 10/18 weap in OH.