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Originally Posted by loramin
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Right, before the LLMs we have today were impossible (with a reasonable amount of processing power). Innovation changed that and we got LLMs.
It's like with airplanes, you didn't go from leaving the ground to circumnavigating the globe: it took many separate inventions.
But, there were periods, often many years, between those inventions. When the Wright brothers first flew, some people were like "I'll be flying to China tomorrow!". Those people were very wrong.
AI will get better, no doubt, but no one can predict innovation timelines.
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Sure, but I am not predicting that timeline.
Im arguing that trillions of dollars being invested into a timeline that has no predictability wouldn't make sense unless everyone in the world went mad at the same time.
It took the airplane industry 50 years to go from paper and wood to nuclear intercontinental space traveling rockets.
People worked on flight for melinia, and then after someone figures out lift, suddenly we're riding on busses in the sky.
It's hard to predict where we'll be in the near future, but one thing is for sure the same people that told me that AI was going to crush human creativity and I was evil for supporting it, are now the same ones saying that we're stupid for thinking AI has a lot of untapped potential.
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And without some new invention, AI will never make EQ
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This is objectively false though. More power would allow modern technology to do this.
Unless you're going to make arguments like, a new invention is a new way to put transistors onto a computer chip, or building a space fairing data center.