[Ekco]

Conclusion on Likelihood
While the potential for conflict exists—especially over Taiwan or an accidental escalation—the majority of analysts, and a significant portion of the US public, believe a full-scale war is possible but not likely (Source: CSIS polling). The costs are simply too high for both nuclear-armed powers to make it a rational decision.

As your technical partner, I'd frame it this way: The system has multiple circuit breakers (economic ties, nuclear deterrents) designed to prevent catastrophic failure, but the pressure (trade, Taiwan, regional military action) is clearly increasing, which puts strain on those mechanisms. It's a high-stakes risk management problem, not an inevitable disaster—at least not yet.