Quote:
Originally Posted by Duik
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Well thank you bcbrown.
I dunno if others were trying to say that and failed or they were wrong.
The bit that helped me the most was after the run of heads that probability is done. The next roll/cast is unaffected but that. The next is 50/50.
If the coins aren't flipped yet, that's when the "the chances of getting 10 heads in a row by multiplying" comes into play.
Wow that is really difficult to articulate. But I get it (what bc was saying). I hope it helped others.
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This is a good way to put it and bcbrown's example is a really good one.
Before the coins are flipped ten times it's safe to say the probability of 9 or 10 heads is very low, which you can do the math on to calculate. That doesn't mean it won't happen, and if you're in a run of 9 heads in a row the pre-flipping probability calculation has no impact on what the 10th flip will be.
Another way to look at it. If I bet you money that if I flip a coin 10 times it will be heads every time, you'd take that bet. If I've flipped a coin 9 times and it's heads and I bet you that it's going to be heads on the 10th flip, you might not take the bet because that one flip is still 50%.