Quote:
Originally Posted by Samoht
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Just hate it when people intentionally conflate probability in this game to justify their bad luck. It sucks that the original complainer failed the shawl combine 6 times, but it sounds like they need to raise their tailoring skill.
Someone telling them on the forums that it's statistically improbable to fail that many times is just factually incorrect. It's an anomaly, for sure, but it's still within acceptable terms of probability.
I'm sorry that you cannot fathom that the chance for failure was still real after 6 tries, but the previous 5 tries do not have any influence on the sixth attempt.
I wish people would stop pushing the gambler's fallacy as probability. It's a huge mistake that lots of people make.
It's obvious that I can't fix stupid, though.
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Did you look at the link I posted? Or anything I wrote? It is unlikely to fail a 40% success rate combine six times in a row, and it’s easy to calculate -how- unlikely that is. It can still happen though.