Quote:
Originally Posted by Samoht
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Just hate it when people intentionally conflate probability in this game to justify their bad luck. It sucks that the original complainer failed the shawl combine 6 times, but it sounds like they need to raise their tailoring skill.
Someone telling them on the forums that it's statistically improbable to fail that many times is just factually incorrect. It's an anomaly, for sure, but it's still within acceptable terms of probability.
I'm sorry that you cannot fathom that the chance for failure was still real after 6 tries, but the previous 5 tries do not have any influence on the sixth attempt.
I wish people would stop pushing the gambler's fallacy as probability. It's a huge mistake that lots of people make.
It's obvious that I can't fix stupid, though.
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I'm not disagreeing with you that it's not within a realm of probability to fail that many times. Just saying that's not what the gambler's fallacy is really.