Quote:
Originally Posted by Samoht
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See, this is what you did wrong. This is the gambler's fallacy. Your previous attempts do not bear any influence over the current attempt. It's always the same flat success rate.
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I'm not great at statistics so correct me if I'm wrong but if you have a 40% fail rate there's a point where the odds of failing over X number of times in a row become pretty much statistically insignificant. It is not impossible but the probability is very low. The gamblers fallacy comes in when you believe the results of previous rolls impact the results of the next one, which is wrong but probabilities are still a thing.
So in essence, at 165 tailoring you have about 40% chance to fail. The probabilities would be that you'd have 1% chance to fail 5 combines so if you farm enough stuff for 5 combines it is pretty fair to expect one of them will work out even though it isn't impossible it doesn't.
I ended up getting my shawl on the 7th try so you could say I'm in the 1% club
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