My example was two swings over a 16 second fight. Your example was three swings over an 18 second fight. You came up with a number that was similar but not the same as the number I came up with. You've refused to address my calculations:
https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...68#post3671968
I'm bored with trying to teach you probability. I consider my previous posts a sufficient explanation, and won't bother correcting you on this topic any more.