[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Great, 2 second stun duration and 64 DPS.

Since we have an expected stun rate of 17%, I'll discard the possibility of two stuns in a fight, and focus on the expected damage added given one stun occurs. Since I'm not going to build out a full Markov Chain for you, I'll asume the stun timing is fully stochastic, meaning it's equally likely to occur at any point of the 17 seconds pre-slow.

If it occurs during the malo: the malo phase goes from 5s to <duration of malo cast before stun> + 2 + 5. The stochastic assumption lets us take the midpoint of the cast as the expected time, so it goes from 5s to 2.5 + 2 + 5, or 9.5, adding 4.5 seconds.
If it occurs during a slow, using the same logic, we have it going from 3s to 1.5 + 2 + 3, or 6.5, adding 3.5 seconds.
If it occurs during a recast interval, it's slightly different. We add the 2s stun duration, but subtract time from the recast time; if you get stunned immediately after a resisted slow, the stun will end before the recast duration, adding zero time.
So, if it occurs in the first 4s of a recast, there's zero impact.
If it occurs in the last 2s of a recast duration, the expected duration impact will be 1 second saved from recast duration, plus 2 seconds stunned, or 1 second added.
Over 17 seconds, we have:
5 seconds casting malo, with 4.5 seconds expected added
6 seconds casting slow, with 3.5 seconds expected added
4 seconds in recast duration for the slow, with 0 seconds expected added
2 seconds in recast duration for the slow, with 1 seconds expected added

So the total expected time added will be:
5/17 * 4.5 + 4/17 * 0 + 2/17 * 3.5 + 6/17 * 1

This is an expected time added of 2.09 seconds, which at 64 DPS is 133 expected damage added.

Worst case will be a stun in the last second of a malo, which would be adding a 2 second stun and a 5 second cast, or 448 damage. This will occur 1/17th of the time. Next worst case is in the last second of a slow, which would add a 2 second stun and a 3 second cast, or 320 damage. Since there's three casts in this scenario, there's a total of 3/17th chance of this worst case happening.

So:
There's a 1 in 6 chance of a stun happening pre-slow.
If there's a slow, the expected damage is 133.
There's a 3/17 chance the expected damage is either 320 or 448.

This means the worst case will happen around .1725 * 3/17 or 3% of the time.

Using your own calculations, you can see that FSI gives you hundreds of HP in the first 17 seconds of the pre-slow phase of a fight when it triggers. Iksar/Troll Regeneration would consistently give you 24 HP in the same amount of time.

Realistically speaking 24 HP is basically never going to help during the pre-slow phase of a fight. The chances of 24 HP saving you from death is much lower than 3%. This is why FSI is better from a Min/Max perspective, and why people pick Vindi BP over Fungi Tunic. The chance to reduce damage spikes via Vindi BP or FSI is higher than the chance that 24 HP is going to save you during the pre-slow phase of a fight, which is the most dangerous phase of a fight. Once the mob is slowed, Iksar/Troll Regeneration is just going to help you with recovery time at the end of the fight, which ends up being 30 seconds in a 15 minute fight. Less if the fight is shorter.