https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEgFcImQ9XU
Two malo casts, first interrupted (by a spell?)
Two Turgur's casts - first resisted.
https://youtu.be/igpbLuNe0ls?feature=shared&t=438 - first Turgur's lands
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLhe3KQXke0
1 malo cast
Two turgur's casts - first resisted
So assumptions are that each fight has one Malo and two Turgur's, and the first Turgur's getting resisted.
Turgur's has a 3s cast and a 6s recast. Malo has a 5s cast, recast not applicable since it's unresistable.
That means the pre-slow portion of the fight is 5 + 3 + 6 + 3 or 17 seconds. Using an 8 second interval between bash/kick attempts, that's 2.125 bash/kicks per fight pre-slow. Using your 70/30 split, that's 1.4875 bashes.
Your numbers were 21044 total kick/bashes and 6718 kicks, so 14326 bash attempts. 6157 bashes hit, so the success rate was .4298 (6157 / 14326). Your data shows a stun rate of .2698 (1661 / 6157) on successful bashes.
1.4875 expected bashes pre-slow results in .639 successful bashes, or .1725 stuns, or about one in six fights.
You with me so far? If so we can proceed to damage calculations. Two numbers that would help greatly are average stun duration and Turgur's resist rate. Here I'm using a 50% resist rate (data shows 3/5 or 40%), but it's gotta be closer to 10-20%, right? Until Troxx or someone else digs up some stun duration from logs, my wild-ass guess is that it'll be about 3 seconds?
Providing a full log of one of these fights will also help with damage estimates.