You can get the average from real data to get an accurate approximation of how many hits are max hits. The problem is you simply pulled the 20% number out of thin air.
If you use 20 STR instead of 50 STR, your 344 second number goes to 374 seconds. If the max hit rate is only 2% instead of 20%, the difference is going to be small.
You are smply assuming the numbers are in your favor.
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