I also don't understand how you can even measure such a thing, really.
Like, a guy murders somebody. Okay. That's not evidence that deterrence doesn't work, it's just evidence it didn't work for that specific guy. How are you supposed to measure all the other hypothetical people who *would* have murdered but didn't because of the harsh penalties? The conclusion that deterrence doesn't work seems fundamentally unfalsifiable and therefor useless for drafting policy.
It reminds me a lot of the arguments against drug prohibition. It's always some variation of "there are laws against it and people do it anyway, therefor the laws don't stop it!". And it's like, go check the stats on drug abuse in Singapore. Pretty sure deterrence works.
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