Magician would fare best for a player who's either innately limited (say, a little kid or a non-gamer), or a player who has no intention of putting all that much work into his character. Magician would work fine if it's topping out at level 55-57 or some such and wearing rags, heck gearless if it wants, while the shaman's going to be a downer if played by the same individual, not useless, but always haunted by the knowledge of how far it is from its potential. Shamans require a lot of investment to get the most out of them, both time and platinum, it's probably the class's largest drawback.
The shaman's single target damage dealt is lower than the magician's on average, but not by so much as most folks typically expect. Part of the reason for the larger gulf, in usual practice, is because damage isn't everything and the shaman can usually find other better things to do to make the group more comfortable and the game session more pleasant while the magician has no choice but to deal damage since it's all he can do. Power gamers tend to ignore things like convenience or mental fatigue but such factors, with real people involved, are quite often the difference between having say a 2 hour session versus going three or four hours.
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