So like Donbas, Luhansk and Odessia (speeling is bad or russian) is kinda 1/3rd of Ukraine or 1/3 the size of Texas. If the Russians only moved into those two or three regions tho without going after all of Ukraine that would have been a really bad strategic move and would make it easier for insurgents to keep coming into those areas from the west and destabilizing those regions and border there.
If you think about it, probably even prior to 2014, like even 2012 or 10 even those areas where economic deadzones because of the unique history and demographic situation that Jibartik illustrated prior. Especially with a cool professor video if you dig that out you'll really see what I'm talking about.
Now, "NATO" really wanted to solve this problem, and Russia forever had pretty much been nononono let Russia do it for u. This region is really important to russia cuz half these guys are practically russia. So. There is a legitimate casus bellius or however riewa says that word.
I remember the state of the Balkan states from my national geographics in the 80s and 90s. It has been really interesting. I feel like the media is inflating Russian "cruelty" on this one too. They could have gone in a lot harder initially. They did give civvies a lot of time to evac. And and they are taking heavier casualties themselves over that instead of just going in and doing the Iraq Kuwait highway of death thing the U.S. did.
This could have probably worked itself out in the long run in a sort of mutually beneficial way without a war and occupation. Who knows tho. Covid ate everyones brains and I'm pretty sure Putin is just 1 speed only. He is pretty old and KGB trained. So the bandaid came off. Who knows maybe he's thinking "holy shit this is actually working sort of." And he was totally ready to lose every asset engaged there. So it's like a bonus we've all made it this far.
I know Ukraine doesn't want to be occupied or Russia, and it should have stayed super Ukrainian with Ukrainian spellings and stuff. This IS what happened tho. And it could have been Hella worse right off the bat.
Anyone know how the Ukrainian defense is fairing? Any speculation on if they have a chance? Can do more damage? Retaliate? Their staying power? I'm sorta cheering for them. Not if it's going to drag on for 50 years tho and be forever hella miserable. Ideally they sorta pretty much win and sort it out with a more diplomatically receptive Russia that chills out some. Tho. I really honestly don't think that's is in the cards.
I saw three outcomes I thought I would tweak a bit more in favor of Ukraine some. Where russia gets most of all of Ukraine, half of Ukraine, or just the regions they cases belli over and a strip of coast between odessia and donbas and crimea.
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