This is a giant loss for Putin whichever way it shakes out. He can claim whatever he wants for the gullible public but the leaders of the western nations know the truth. You don't send huge amounts of blood plasma to the front for training exercises, you literally don't do anything like he was doing for training exercises. You don't accuse people of stringing children on wires for training exercises. Also, every legitimate training exercise is planned well in advance and also public knowledge especially on that scale. Also, they've been doing these exercises for 11 months now. So he's lying and everyone knows he's lying except idk stupid people.
The people who have been lying the entire time are now saying ok this is the truth now and as proof they show you a video of tanks on a train. As further proof they claim they already invaded Ukraine 8 years ago and got what they wanted so there's no need to do it again. There you go stupid, run with it, the war is off!
The Ukrainian War has been going on since 2014. Every move Putin makes is designed to put pressure on it, to destabilize it, to install a new Lukashenko. He moves troops up, he moves them back, he does maneuvers, he screws their pipeline, oops there's more unrest in the Donbass. He took over the Crimea, just seized it. Ooops this is now our country not yours like it has been. They just declared the Donbass some new political entity, don't even care to look up the name because it's just a paperwork excuse to keep what they took and make it formal in a little while. Meanwhile he keeps his people fed with a steady diet of children on wires and his political opponents are all in jail or were real clumsy with the balconies.
Anyway, like I said this is a giant loss for him. Everyone in the West is now terrified of him because he's a fucking maniac. They knew he had to do this little Russian thing to hold on to power but no one thought he would go this far. If he wanted to crack NATO he did the opposite. The UK went super-belligerent on him, he must have been really surprised at that. They're the biggest hawks on this thing, they were the first to send troops and call for unity and a show of strength. He publicly humiliated Marcon and everyone could see it, which I'm sure played great on the Russian TV but was seen as a personal insult among the western rulers and a caution against talking to him further.
Lastly, and this is the most important part of all, he fucked his relationship with Germany. The Germans are pragmatic and they'll see the folly of getting their energy supplies from a maniac with his thumb on the valve and five thousand tanks a short drive away. Or at least the hope is there. The one biggest fear of American foreign policy is tight cooperation between Russia and Germany. Yup, it's not Russia alone or China. It's that if Germany and Russia form a tight bond or some sort of union, the resulting entity will be the one most able to challenge the US in the future. This is the one central pillar of American foreign policy since the end of WW2. No matter what happens, Russia and Germany can never be friends.
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