I am attempting to help Dumb and Dumber understand because they lack critical education in reading and math skills.
In my estimate P(Trainquish wins)= .80 and P(Riot wins)= .20 for each independent race.
The probability that Trainquish wins 20 times in a row using this estimate is 1 in 100.
Now if we estimate Tainquish and Riot win equal amounts of races, the probability that Trainquish wins 20 times in a row is 1 in 1,000,000
What happened on the 21st race, Trainquish was observed not trying to win the race?
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