Quote:
Originally Posted by Gwaihir
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No, you're missing the point. NDX, and the market on the whole (VTI) are considerably outpacing it's annual CAGR. There's nothing particularly spectacular about the market this year for it to be increasing at the rate that it has thus far; essentially returning an entire year's gains in the first 2 fiscal quarters. This is the kind of "run-up" typically associated with a market correction.
Couple this with the fact that NDX (which QQQ aims to emulate) is only the "top" 100 of the 3300+ companies within the nasdaq index, which is underperforming NDX and you can expect to see a short term shift in value stocks, as well as a commodity industry which has been shit on for years while big-tech has led the race devaluing commodies' true market share.
If June 2021 were every month 2021, this would be the largest run-up in the nasdaq since 1999 which was followied by the dot com crash.
0.062/ the natural logarithm of 2 = 0.683 = 11 months to double. 1999 only had a cagr of 88%
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You can talk about statistics all you want, we left the land of statistics and fundamentals a year ago, and if you were banking on that you would have missed the last years worth of gains. This market run up is based solely on the belief that uncle Biden and the fed are all in in making this thing keep going. And it will keep going up until Powell farts out a whisper of easing QE.