I went through that post and pdf and decided a lot of it was whining about non rogues getting piercers... dear lord it is horrible. The pdf, however, does have a lot of data. The only problem is he admits he skews the data on both ends "to make it fit." The important thing is the obvious 1-20 rolls, the significant part of this post is here:
1) PC_DAM_BONUS=1, with ATK_ROLL from 1 to 20. This covers the left and central
spikes. The distribution extends from <=290 (clipped) to 538 in this plot.
2) PC_DAM_BONUS=3.55, with ATK_ROLL from 1 to 20. This is the cause of the high spike to the right (ATK_ROLL=20) and the other 19 smaller spikes inbetween the left and right edges.
3) 1 < PC_DAM_BONUS < 3.55. These cause a whole background of hit values. However because ATK_ROLL=20 is more common than the others (as can be seen by the right hand
spike being the highest) we therefore also have 255 values in this background that are higher than the rest
It seems we aren't seeing ATK_ROLL=20 as much, or even 17 18 or 19. The distribution seems skewed towards the low end instead, and not just for backstab either. Should it be possible to hit for 2 at level 57?*
*On mobs with high enough AC I would expect low hits a lot but the DMG bonus isn't even being added or is being mitigated after the fact.
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