Quote:
Originally Posted by Anathuril
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Interesting - that probably explains why I can't find a reason for the excessive fizzle rate. I see streaking in the RNG, but the overall distribution of values looks roughly reasonable, and the RNG output is therefore apparently not the source of the high fizzle rate. The fizzle rate has to be a result of a calculation in the fizzle code then, but I don't know precisely what code to look at, so I will leave you to it as you wish.
The probability of a streak of five fizzles, even if the fizzle rate is .05, is .0000003125, or one in 3.2 million. four fizzles out of nine casts comes to about one in .0006426 or one in 1556. Still doesn't make sense. If the real fizzle rate is significantly higher, as I have empirically observed, that could explain the streak of five in a row on the low level spell.
Thanks and regards -
Anathuril
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What he said!
Seriously though, I have had a large amount of double fizzles on spells 10+ levels below with all skills maxxed. I know that the 5% minimum would be in place at that point. I felt that it was pretty strange seeing double and triple fizzles so often on trvial spells. It has been so bad that I normally spam click every spell I cast and look at the casting bar and stop when it keeps going.
The ongoing joke about fizzles in EQ is true, but only for newly gained spells ( 15 skill points, basically 3 lvls, above that new spell should drop it to 5% failure rate ) and for people who do not max out their skills.
Im going to start taking some screen shots of my own. RNG being streaky or not, we should all play the lotto if this continues... either that or something strange is going on with the 5% min fail rate.