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The problem here is how you qualify "decent evidence", especially given the original source of the "expected average". To me, when it comes to random nobodies' claims on the internet, beyond 1 standard deviation I start to expect some some bullshit is afoot and virtually assured of it by the time I get anywhere near 2.
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Under the assumption that the expected drop rate is 3.5%, you are already more than 2 standard deviations away from your expected number of drops after 160 kills.