Quote:
Originally Posted by jadier
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Nope, it's a Poisson process. Think of it like this: flipping a coin twice does not guarantee a heads, even though getting a heads is a 1-in-2 chance. Flipping a coin 4 times and seeing no heads still doesn't mean your coin is "broken".
If you see roughly 400 couriers in a row, that'd be decent evidence that there's something off with a 2% drop chance. Until then, you just have a run of bad luck.
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To clarify, this is very likely just a run of bad luck. You need way more than 160 courier pops to reject a 3.5% drop rate.
So if you see (or hear about from "trusted friends") 160 couriers in a row with no GGR that's...not super unexpected! Thousands of courier pops have been observed, and generally only those who get it crazy fast or who wait crazy-long without seeing it mention their experience on the forum. So the variance is easy to overestimate without careful logging.
tldr; put up or shut up on an actually large (>1000) spawn dataset before throwing shade on the crowd sourced wiki.