Play the class you want, don't let an XP penalty deter you. You won't be happy that way. As for numbers, do a '/who all shaman count' etc. and see for yourself. I'd say on any given day, if there's about mid-700s people online, I get numbers like this:
Necro, mage, druid: 90ish
Enchanter, cleric, monk: 80ish
Shaman, bard: 60ish
Warrior, rogue: 40ish
Shadowknight, wizard: 30ish
Paladin: 20ish
Ranger: 10-15ish
That said, paladin is an ok but not so great class while shaman and bard are both top-quality classes.
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