Quote:
Originally Posted by hobart
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This might be the biggest story in your life, but it's not big at the moment. It doesn't seem that it will change things.
Trump has a meaningful chance of winning the overall election. If he wins a state where one or two polls had Biden with a bigger lead than the margin of error, that doesn't make the polls wrong.
Best case for Biden is they call either NC or FL for him early and it's a long night for Trump. But I still think Trump has +2 in his back pocket (a four point shift) and could well win all the states where it's currently close: NC, FL, GA, IA, and AZ.
So I'm back to saying Pennsylvania is the real story. There is not really a plausible scenario where Trump loses PA and wins. However if he wins PA and all the other states he's expected to win or is close in, he is re-elected. He does not need MI, WI, or MN to win. Even though the modeling clearly favors Biden, he is only +5 in PA.
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Biden is +17 in Wisconsin and Texas is in play. I am not sure which one of these gets the award.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-Michigan.html