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Originally Posted by hobart
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In the year of COVID I don't think either side will know exactly what early voting means until its over.
I don't know that you're right or wrong about where FiveThirtyEight had Hillary vs. Trump in FL four years ago, but those aren't odds... Those are simulation numbers. They run tens of thousands of simulations and, if your numbers are correct, Trump won 28.9 out of 100. Those are still significantly plausible odds. Today they have Biden winning 2/3 times, but he's only ahead by two points on average across all polls.
Polls in 2016 weren't inaccurate. Trump always had a 25% or better chance of winning. His 1 in 4 came up. That doesn't mean the polls were wrong.
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It's amazing that people still can't grasp simple probability. A 17% chance is the same as rolling a 6 sided die and getting the result you wanted. Trump was always in the running, even if the odds favored Hillary. There were so many unknowns with the polling that year since pollsters didn't take into account all of the non-voters and rednecks that turned out for Trump as well as the general apathy toward Hillary. They've altered their methodology and should, hopefully, be closer to the mark this election.