50 Democratic Senate Seats. Dems keep House.
Trump has 2 points in his back pocket that don’t show in the polls. Take the current polling and +2Trump/-2Biden in most states.
Trump wins AZ, FL, OH, NC – all barely. Biden wins MN, MI, and WI. It comes down to Pennsylvania.
In Pennsylvania Trump will lead in-person voting, but Biden will pull even, pass, and surpass as the results from mail-in voting are reported. Then the “it’s rigged” tweets start.
Votes are challenged. Mail-in votes are rejected, typically, at a much higher rate than ballot box votes.
Trump will not concede, duh. This will drag on and on until mid-December.
The Secretary of State and Governor will send Biden electors to Congress and the State Legislature will send Trump electors – no matter what all the lower courts say.
If Pence tries to use the Trump electors without an order from a federal court and a pass or ruling from the SCotUS, Nancy will throw them out of the House. Do they then get to hold the count in private? If so, does it count?
I don’t think the SCotUS will decide rather to hear the case or not unless we get into crisis mode.
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