[Wonkie]

Originally Posted by BlackBellamy [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Let me run these numbers by you guys see if they make sense. So every year for every 1000 people, 18.5 are born and 7.8 die (which is why there's all these people lately).

Some CDC/WHO guy was estimating the virus penetration rate of 40-70% so lets assume the low end 40%. Mortality rate so far is Male 2.8% and Female 1.7% but lets be generous and just go with 2%.

So of the thousand, it infects 400 people of which 392 survive. Yay!

Now, once you have the virus it doesn't give you immunity to it again (I don't know this for sure, I know that a Japanese woman who had it came down with it two week later after being cleared) but lets just suppose. Since its so virulent it's always around, so you get sick again a month or two later.

Of the 992 remaining people 397 get sick, and 389 survive.

You stay sick for a month, you recover, couple of weeks later it hits you again. Over the course of the year, you get sick four times. And every time it comes around, your population takes a little hit.

At the end of the year, you're down to give or take 970 people. 18.5 are born. 7.8 die of other causes. Now you have 980. It's the New Year and you hear a cough.

So my question is, given that a declining population will have lower birth rate over time and that this will be further aggravated by the breakdown in social services, but at the same time the declining population will reduce the transmission rate, how many years will it be until not enough utility workers show up to man the power plants?

Ignorant premise; antibodies

Hope this helps