Quote:
Originally Posted by Tecmos Deception
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It's everywhere. There are simply too many streaks in all sorts of p99 activities given overall rates. I posted on resist streakiness a month or so ago with data if you care to dig a little, but I'm too lazy to provide the link.
Just a rough example for illustration: if p99 rng controlled coin flips, over the course of 10000 flips you'd see about 5000 heads and about 5000 tails. But you'd probably have 50 streaks of 10 instead of the 10 you should have seen based on 50/50 chances of heads vs tails.
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Are you saying that in 10000 coin fips the expected value of the number of times you get heads 10 times in a row is 10 but in EQ you will see 50? If so I have a few questions, are you only considering heads or does 10 tails count as one of these streaks. If we get 11 heads in a row does that count as 2 streaks of 10, counting 1-10 and 2-11. What is the variance of this expected value? How are you determining the expected value of this event in the first place?