"Less likely" is kind of a wonky way to phrase statistics.
If you had 10 incidents out of x cycles, and after a change you had 5 incidents out of x cycles, you'd be better off saying something like "50% as many incidents", not "100% less likely to have an incident". That's just a weird way of putting it, especially when you start dealing with actual numbers and not nice, round examples. It's not wrong, it's just... weird.
It's like people who got tripped up by thac0 in AD&D. AC was a modifier, not the target number. But 99% of DMs tried to explain it as if AC was your TN. It's not technically wrong, because you can do it like that, but it just makes it less intuitive.
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